- The Iran war is unpopular.
- Democrats are highly motivated to use that unpopularity to defeat Republicans in the midterms.
- Every Dem candidate seeking to unseat a GOP hack constantly cracks consensus.
- Congress must approve more funds.
- Trump is widely hated across the board and this is seen as a chance to oust him by all his enemies, including those in the GOP.
- Iran can keep the Straight of Hormuz closed to shipping by destroying very few commercial ships, one a month would do it.
- Israel is tiny and running out of interceptors and Iran can destroy them with no more than ten powerful hits on power stations and desalinization plants.